This article details a study into the development and validation of a dynamic instrument for adult sex offense recidivism that is designed to predict repeat sexual offending and offenders failing to register as sex offenders after conviction of a offense.
This study describes the development and validation of the Adult Dynamic Validated Instrument for Sex Offense Recidivism (ADVISOR), which is designed to predict two types of recidivism-repeat sexual offending and failure to register (FTR)-specific to people convicted of sex offenses. Developed and internally validated on more than 40,000 men and women convicted of sex offenses who had been released from prison, the ADVISOR had adequate predictive performance, achieving an AUC of 0.71 for sex offense recidivism and 0.73 for FTR recidivism. The ADVISOR performed especially well for females for sex offense recidivism, obtaining an AUC of 0.78 in the internal validation and an AUC of 0.82 in the external validation. (Published Abstract Provided)