Researchers at Carnegie Mellon University have developed a method for computing the point in time when a person with a criminal record presents no greater risk of committing another crime than people in the general population.
The researchers examined three types of crime (robbery, burglary, and aggravated assault) and three different ages at first arrest (16, 18, and 20 years old). The study found that the risk of recidivism for someone arrested for robbery when he was 18 years old declined to the point where it was the same as the risk of someone of the same age in the general population committing a crime at age 25.7 - or 7.7 years after the "redemption" candidate's crime. The risk of recidivism for someone who was arrested for burglary when he was 18 years old declined to the same risk as someone the same age in the general population at age 21.8, i.e., 3.8 years after the crime. The risk of recidivism for someone who was arrested for aggravated assault when he was 18 years old declined to the same risk as the general population at age 22.3 years old, i.e., 4.3 years after the crime. The study also found that the younger an offender is when he first commits a crime, the longer he has to stay crime-free in order to have the same risk of arrest as people his same age in the general population. The preliminary results of this study suggest that employers can have the empirical data they need to decide whether an ex-offender has been "clean" long enough to pose little risk to the employer. This article summarizes the research methodology used in the study. 1 figure and 4 notes
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