This final report describes the research methodology and findings behind the concluding recommendation that the Bureau of Justice Statistics should transition to calculating victimization prevalence rates by using the one-victimization adjustment method rather than continuing with the current method and instead of the one-interview adjustment method.
This document presents an analysis of the National Crime Rate Victimization Survey (NCVS), since its data structure produces some challenges for estimating prevalence rates that describe the level of victimization based on the number of persons (or households) in the population who experienced at least one victimization during a specified time period. The purpose of the study being reported here was to determine whether the current method for calculating prevalence rates is potentially underestimating the actual prevalence rate and to explore alternatives that will address the issue. The report includes the following sections: Understanding the Challenges of Estimating Prevalence Rates in the NCVS (Phase 1); Summary of Prevalence Estimation Methods (Phase 2); Detailed Methodology for Alternative Prevalence Methods (Phase 2); Evaluation of a Hybrid Method (Phase 3); Examples of Current and Alternative Prevalence Methods (Phase 4); Conclusions; and an Appendix with tables. The report concludes that the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) should transition to calculating victimization prevalence rates by using the one-victimization adjustment method rather than continuing with the current method and instead of the one-interview adjustment method.