Recidivism of Denied Prospective Firearm Purchasers

• NCJ Number: 222677
• Author(s): James M. Tien Ph.D.; Michael F. Cahn; David M Einstein; Ke Pei
• Date Published: May 2008
• Length: 16 pages
• Grant Number(s): 2004-BJ-BX-K001
• Agencies: BJS-Sponsored
• Publication Type: Report (Study/Research)

Annotation

This study assessed the impact of denials of firearm purchases under the FBIs National Instant Background Check System (NICS) in directly or indirectly reducing future arrests.

Abstract

Focusing only on those individuals denied a firearm purchase for a criminal reason and controlling for both prior arrest and age, the study found that the denied persons' risk of arrest in the 5 years after the denial was 28.3 percent higher than in the 5 years before the denial. The study concludes that this finding indicates the importance of implementing the "lie-and-try" strategy along with the denial intervention. "Lie-and-try," which is a component of the U.S. Justice Department's Project Safe Neighborhoods, involves the arrest and prosecution of persons who falsify information on their firearms purchase application (ATF Form 4473). The prosecution and potential conviction of a denied person may act as a deterrent to that person, and possibly others, from committing a crime after denial of a firearm purchase. Also, if convicted and incarcerated for falsifying the firearms application, the denied person would be prevented from committing crimes for the duration of the incarceration. The study was based on 4 datasets: NICS reports on persons denied firearms in 1999 (n=88,206); arrest records for those denied for a criminal reason (n=66,115); reports of current checks on a sample of persons denied firearms in 1999 (n=5,000); and a random sample of arrest records (n=48,061). 10 references and 9 tables