NCJ Number
86680
Date Published
1982
Length
57 pages
Annotation
Preliminary analysis of a 1958 birth cohort from Philadelphia shows that offenders in this group who grew up during the late 1960's and early 1970's committed more crimes and much more serious crimes than offenders examined in a 1945 cohort study who grew up in the 1950's.
Abstract
The first birth cohort investigation dealing with delinquency examined all boys born in 1945 and residing in Philadelphia from a date no later than their 10th birthday and until at least their 18th and was published in 1972. The study was replicated for a 1958 birth cohort to assess trends in serious juvenile crime, types of offenses, and racial differentiation. While Cohort I contained 9,945 males and 3,475 delinquents, Cohort II was much larger, reflected a more even racial distribution, and included females. Its data were collected from 28,338 subjects and 6,545 delinquents. Males in the two cohorts had about the same proportion of delinquents, but the proportion of one-time offenders decreased in Cohort II and chronic recidivists rose. Both cohorts showed that nonwhites were more likely to become delinquent and that their delinquency was more likely to be recidivistic. Males in Cohort II had a higher offense rate generally, especially for serious offenses. Chronic offenders in Cohort I constituted 18 percent of delinquents, but were responsible for 53 percent of all delinquent offenses. Comparable figures for Cohort II were 22 percent and 61 percent. The chronic offender effect in Cohort I was mostly a function of the nonwhite chronics, but was associated with excessive delinquency for both races in the second cohort. Data on the probability of repeat delinquency indicated similar distributions overall, but distinct differences when the offense type was considered. Cohort II offenders showed a much higher probability of committing a violent offense and recidivating out to a violent offense. In Cohort II, race disparity was only evident for violent offenses, with almost one-third of nonwhite offenders being charged with a violent crime compared to 12 percent of whites. Since most adult offenders have delinquency records, it seems that career criminal programs should have access to juvenile records. Cohort II may be a demographic aberration, but this cannot be ascertained until Cohort III born in 1970 is analyzed. The paper discusses the implications of these findings for crime rate trends and policy. Tables and 14 references are appended.