NCJ Number
216788
Journal
Journal of Offender Rehabilitation Volume: 43 Issue: 2 Dated: 2006 Pages: 75-85
Date Published
2006
Length
11 pages
Annotation
This study tested three psychology interns' ability to use their clinical judgment in predicting the postrelease reoffending of youth incarcerated in a juvenile correctional facility, based on the interns' clinical judgment.
Abstract
Each of the interns had 100-percent accuracy in predicting which youth would be reincarcerated within 2 years of their release. All 29 of the youth predicted by the interns to be reincarcerated within 2 years fulfilled the prediction. Sixteen (44 percent) of the 36 youth in the control group (youth randomly selected from the same institution whose offense history after release was also assessed) were convicted of a felony within 2 years of their release. The interns' accuracy was significantly enhanced by two factors. First, they were only predicting who would reoffend, not those who would not reoffend. Second, they were able to select the most likely to reoffend; they did not have to assess a large group and make predictions about all of the individuals within that population. The authors believe that if the interns had attempted to predict reoffending for the entire population of incarcerated youth in the institution, they would have had a high rate of inaccurate predictions. The interns had been trained in how to use clinical judgment in predicting future offending. They were taught to predict reoffending by the presence of the following variables: deep involvement in a delinquency lifestyle, significant histories of aggressive behavior within the institution, long stays in disciplinary status in the institution because of serious misconduct, significant impulsivity, and statements consistent with future offending. Following the training, the interns were asked to select at least 10 youth whom they believed would be incarcerated for criminal behavior within 2 years after their release. 1 table and 16 references