NCJ Number
217558
Journal
Criminal Justice and Behavior Volume: 34 Issue: 3 Dated: March 2007 Pages: 297-313
Date Published
March 2007
Length
17 pages
Annotation
Two studies examined whether the following selected variables were relevant to modifications in violence risk assessment over time: age, the passage of time since the first offense, time spent incarcerated, or time spent offense-free in the community.
Abstract
Using scores on the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG), an actuarial violence risk assessment instrument, this study found no empirical basis for adjusting risk assessment for violence because an offender had gotten older. Age at release predicted violent reoffending, but not as well as age at first offense. For sex offenders, age at first offense improved the prediction of violent and sexual reoffending. The time elapsed since the first offense and the time spent incarcerated were not related to the risk for violent behavior after release. Findings did support the lowering of VRAG recidivism risk estimates based on extended periods of violence-free behavior while at risk for reoffending in the community; however, this finding held only as long as the person assessed was not in the three highest VRAG categories of risk. Using three non-overlapping samples of violent offenders, the first study examined whether any of three variables (time elapsed since the first offenses, time spent incarcerated, and age at release) were related to violent reoffending or made an incremental contribution to the prediction of violent recidivism after age at first offense was considered. The second study used all the participants from the samples in the first study (n=1,309) in order to examine violent reoffending as a function of offense-free time at risk. It used annual time "gates" between 5 and 20 years. For each "gate," researchers included only those participants who had at least the number of years of opportunity to reoffend pertaining to that "gate." 5 tables, 4 notes, and 44 references