NCJ Number
85290
Date Published
1982
Length
21 pages
Annotation
This paper describes the objectives of prison population forecasts and examines problems in existing forecasting approaches from the correctional administrator's viewpoint.
Abstract
An intelligent solution to prison overcrowding, must be based on reasonably accurate forecasts of future correctional populations. Forecasts are used to prepare yearly operating budgets, plan future construction, and estimate the effects of proposed policy changes on prison populations. A few States have demonstrated that operationally successful forecasts can be made, but a model must be developed in times of equilibrium rather than crisis. Successful forecasting models have a low probability of transfer, because the factors affecting admissions and time served are highly idiosyncratic from one State to another. Some forecasters hedge their bets by developing multiple forecasts based on different assumptions, but these estimates produce both administrative and ethical problems. Disaggregated forecasts are likely to be inaccurate because of the lack of historical data on special groups of inmates. Most forecasts prepared by outside consultants have been abandoned, and administrators instead should develop an internal forecasting capability during periods of equilibrium. The consequences of error are greater for underprediction than overprediction, since many States have antiquated facilities that could be demolished if overconstruction occurred. A forecaster may accept considerable gross error as long as the net error is small, depending on how the model is used. Ethical problems can arise when administrators try to modify forecasts to promote their policy objectives.