NCJ Number
237938
Date Published
January 2009
Length
47 pages
Annotation
This report presents adult and juvenile Texas correctional population projections for fiscal years 2009-2014 to serve as a basis for biennial funding determinations.
Abstract
The projections are preceded by the presentation of data for the Texas crime rate and juvenile arrests and arrest rate. The Texas adult incarceration population is projected to remain steady in fiscal year 2009, but decline in fiscal year 2010 due to the impact of the diversion and treatment initiatives funded by the legislature. The adult incarceration population is projected to begin increasing again in fiscal year 2012 and increase to 157,997 by the end of fiscal year 2014. As a result of relatively higher parole release rates and lower parole revocation rates, the parole supervision population is projected to increase for each year of the projection. Under current sentencing practices and statutes, the parole supervision population is projected to average 83,249 by fiscal year 2014. The adult felony community supervision population is projected to increase due to increased felony community supervision placements and decreasing number of felony community supervision revocations. Under current sentencing practices and statutes, the adult felony community supervision population is projected to average 179,503 by fiscal year 2014. The number of adult misdemeanor community supervision placements is projected to increase by 1,286 from fiscal year 2009 through fiscal year 2014 (125,158 to 126,444). The juvenile residential population is expected to increase moderately through fiscal year 2014. The juvenile residential population is projected to increase by 131 offenders from the beginning of fiscal year 2009 until the end of fiscal year 2011 (from 2,413 to 2,544). The juvenile probation supervision population is projected to increase by 0.8 percent each year through fiscal year 2014. 10 tables, 8 figures, and appended methodology descriptions and assumption as well as qualitative review findings