NCJ Number
237940
Date Published
January 2011
Length
47 pages
Annotation
This report updates projections for Texas' adult and juvenile correctional populations for fiscal years 2011-2016 to serve as a basis for biennial funding determinations.
Abstract
Prior to the projected adult and juvenile correctional population projections data are reported for adult and juvenile arrests and arrest rates in Texas. The Texas adult incarceration population is projected to increase in fiscal year 2011 and continue a gradual increase through fiscal year 2016, with an assumed parole approval rate of 30.6 percent. The incarcerated population is projected to increase to 159,977 by the end of fiscal year 2016. As a result of relatively higher parole release rates and lower parole revocation rates, the parole supervision population is projected to increase slightly for each year of the projection. It is projected to average 84,135 by fiscal year 2016. The felony community supervision population is projected to increase more slowly than in previous projections due to decreasing felony community supervision placements and increasing numbers of felony community supervision revocations. This population is projected to average 174,639 by fiscal year 2016. The number of adult misdemeanor community supervision placements is projected to decrease to 99,401 placements by fiscal year 2016. The juvenile residential correctional population is projected to remain fairly stable through fiscal year 2016. This population is projected to be 1,672 by the end of fiscal year 2016. The juvenile supervision population is projected to increase moderately due to the recent increase in the pre-disposition supervision population and the length of stay for juveniles under deferred prosecution supervision and pre-disposition supervision. The average end-of-month supervision population for fiscal year 2016 is projected to be 36,526 in fiscal year 2016. 11 tables, 8 figures, and appended descriptions of projection methodologies and assumptions