NCJ Number
221685
Date Published
February 2008
Length
46 pages
Annotation
This winter assessment provides information on anticipated cultivation levels of opium in Afghanistan in the Spring of 2008.
Abstract
Field visits and interviews with village leaders indicate that cultivation levels will be similar to, or slightly lower than last year's record harvest. Nevertheless, the total amount of opium being harvested remains shockingly high. Europe, and other major heroin markets, should brace themselves for health and security consequences. The cultivation trends for 2008 deepen a dichotomy evident last year: a possibly growing number of opium free provinces in the north and center of the country, and possibly higher levels of cultivation in the south and west, the areas of greatest instability. The positive trend in the north is enhanced by decreases in cultivation in Nangarhar and Badakhshan. This is excellent news since these two provinces have been significant exceptions to the rule of an opium-free northeast. The south and southwest continues to grow opium at an alarming rate, perhaps greater than last year when it counted for 78 percent of total opium cultivation in Afghanistan. This is a windfall for anti-government forces who take a tax of approximately 10 percent of opium cultivation in regions under their control, further evidence of the dangerous link between opium and insurgency. This survey includes information about opium stocks. Taking into account the massive amounts of opium that had been produced in the past few years which far exceed world demand; it would appear that the bulk of the surplus is not being stored by farmers. Another disturbing trend is the steady rise in cannabis cultivation, giving Afghanistan the dubious distinction of being one of the world's biggest suppliers of cannabis, in addition to providing over 90 percent of the world's illicit opium. Data were collected by 82 local field surveyors between December 2007 and January 2008 using the Opium Rapid Assessment Survey. Tables, maps