NCJ Number
31337
Journal
SOCIO-ECONOMIC PLANNING SCIENCES Volume: 9 Dated: (1975) Pages: 221-227
Date Published
1975
Length
7 pages
Annotation
EXPLORATION OF THE HYPOTHESIS THAT THE INCREASE IN THE PROPORTION OF YOUNG ADULTS IN THE POPULATION WHICH OCCURRED DURING THE 1960'S IS A PRIMARY FACTOR IN THE SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN CRIME DURING THAT SAME PERIOD.
Abstract
ARREST RATES ARE ANALYZED BY DEMOGRAPHIC GROUP OVER TIME. A MODEL WHICH ATTEMPTS TO DISTINGUISH BETWEEN THE FUNCTIONS OF CRIMINALITY AND POLICE ACTIVITY IN ARREST ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPED. THE MODEL IS ESTIMATED USING DATA ON AGE, RACE, AND SEX-SPECIFIC ARREST RATES FOR PITTSBURGH RESIDENTS OVER THE PERIOD 1967-1972. THE RESULTS OF THE ANALYSIS SUGGEST THAT THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN CRIMINALITY FOR MEN IN THE PITTSBURGH POPULATION WHILE THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE OF INCREASED CRIMINALITY FOR WOMEN, POSSIBLY REFLECTING AN INCREASED WILLINGNESS OF THE POLICE TO ARREST WOMEN. A RECOMMENDATION IS MADE TO USE THE MODEL TO ANALYZE ARREST RATES FROM OTHER CITIES OR REGIONS TO FURTHER TEST THE HYPOTHESIS.