Analysis of National Crime Victimization Survey Data to Study Serious Delinquent Behavior, Monograph Four - Juvenile Criminal Behavior and Its Relation to Economic Conditions

• NCJ Number: 76217
• Author(s): K R Danser; J H Laub
• Date Published: 1980
• Length: 121 pages
• Grant Number(s): 78-JN-AX-0029
• Sponsoring Agency: US Dept of Justice
• Corporate Author: Hindelang Criminal Justice Research Ctr
• Sale Source: Superintendent of Documents, GPO; National Institute of Justice/
• Publication Type: Survey
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America
• Note: Number 4 of 5 part Victimization Series

Annotation

This study used quarterly offending data to examine the effect of economic conditions on criminal behavior over time. The offending data rates were derived from interviews with victims as reported in the National Crime Survey (1973 to 1978). The findings did not demonstrate an important relationship between the economic indicators and the rate of offending indicators used.

Abstract

A total rate of offending in personal crimes (rape, robbery, aggravated assault, simple assault, and personal larceny) as well as crime specific rates for robbery, aggravated assault, and simple assault were examined. The analysis focused on three major issues. First, the general relationship between economic conditions (unemployment, consumer price index, and gross national product) and overall rates of offending (total, robbery, aggravated assault, and simple assault) was analyzed with results suggesting no relationship between these two categories of indicators. The second issue addressed was the relationship between age-race-sex-specific unemployment rates and comparable rates of offending. With two exceptions, this analysis indicated virtually no relationship between quarterly fluctuations in the specific unemployment and offending rates studied. The third major issue explored was the interrelationship between adult unemployment and juvenile crime. Sex-specific and race-specific adult unemployment rates were correlated with comparable sex and race specific offending rates for juvenile (age 12 to 17) and youthful (age 18 to 20) offenders. Out of 32 relationships, only 4 were found to be statistically significant. Overall, this effort to correlate various economic indices with rates of offending revealed few significant relationships, and these statistically significant relationships were most likely explained by the laws of probability in that as the number of regression analyses increased, the number of significant relationships found increased as well. Tabular data are supplied. Appendixes include annotations and references from the literature on the subject, the National Crime Survey household interview schedule, offender age in National Crime Survey data, population base estimates, and type of crime definitions. Over 50 references are provided. (Author abstract modified)