TO IDENTIFY FACTORS THAT PREDICT WHETHER AN EX-OFFENDER WILL COMMIT ANOTHER CRIME AND, IF HE DOES, WHAT THAT CRIME WILL BE, THE LOGIT MODEL--A TECHNIQUE OF ANALYSIS THAT TAKES INTO ACCOUNT THE QUALITATIVE ASPECTS OF CRIME--IS APPLIED TO THE POSTRELEASE CONVICTION RECORDS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA SAMPLE. THE FINDINGS SHOW THAT THE LIKELIHOOD OF CONVICTION FOR A NEW OFFENSE INCREASES THE YOUNGER THE OFFENDER IS AT RELEASE, THE MORE PREVIOUS CONVICTIONS HE HAS, THE MORE RULE VIOLATIONS HE COMMITTED IN PRISON, AND THE LONGER THE FOLLOWUP PERIOD. RECONVICTION IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH ALCOHOLISM AND USE OF HARD DRUGS. AMONG ALL POSSIBILITEIS OF CONVICTION AND NO CONVICTION AFTER RELEASE, RELEASED OFFENDERS HAVE A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF BEING CONVICTED OF A CRIME OTHER THAN AN OFFENSE AGAINST PERSONS OR PROPERTY IF THEY ARE SUPERVISED AND MARRIED WHEN RELEASED AND IF THEY WERE RELATIVELY MATURE (IN AGE) WHEN FIRST ARRESTED. OFFENDERS WHOSE IMPRISONMENT WAS FOR A CRIME AGAINST A PERSON ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE RECONVICTED FOR A SIMILAR CRIME THAN FOR ANY OTHER TYPE OF OFFENSE. IMPRISONMENT FOR A PROPERTY CRIME SEEMS TO INCREASE THE PROBABILITY OF CONVICTION AFTER RELEASE FOR BOTH PROPERTY CRIMES AND CRIMES AGAINST PERSONS, BUT TO DECREASE THE PROBABILITY OF CONVICTION FOR OTHER TYPES OF CRIME. FURTHER STUDIES OF THIS NATURE SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AN UNDERSTANDING OF THE OBSERVED TENDENCY OF OFFENDER TO SWITCH CRIME TYPES DURING THEIR CAREERS. SUPPORTING DATA AND LIST OF REFERENCES ARE PROVIDED. (AUTHOR ABSTRACT MODIFIED--LKM)
ANALYSIS OF THE TYPE OF CRIMINAL ACTIVITY USING THE LOGIT MODEL
NCJ Number
55889
Journal
Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency Volume: 16 Issue: 1 Dated: (JANUARY 1979) Pages: 164-179
Date Published
1979
Length
16 pages
Annotation
DETERMINANTS OF POSTRELEASE CRIMINAL BEHAVIOR ARE EXPLORED IN A 37-MONTH FOLLOWUP STUDY OF 641 MEN RELEASED FROM NORTH CAROLINA PRISONS.
Abstract