NCJ Number
78203
Date Published
1981
Length
145 pages
Annotation
Systems analysis and a computer simulation model were used to evaluate the consequences of adopting various alternative approaches to the reform of probation in the Florida juvenile justice system.
Abstract
The simulation model was constructed and calibrated using Florida delinquency data for the July 1975 through September 1978 period. The model consisted of a set of equations which mathematically represented the flow of cases, clients, and information. An effort to validate the model was based on empirical comparison of the model and historical data on probation case loads and nonsecure detention populations. The model was then applied to alternative policies regarding the operation of probation as a strategy for developing a community control program with existing resources. The effects on probation of reducing the length of stay on probation and periodically increasing the probation termination rate were projected on the probation caseloads for a 3.5 year period from the date of implementation. Results indicated that introducing both policy changes would achieve the overall objective of reducing probation caseloads within existing resources and would thereby allow an increase in the intensity of supervision necessary for the development of the community control program. However, a continuing increase in caseloads reduced the desired effects of these policy changes. Nevertheless, the Florida model remains potentially useful as a low-cost, midrange model addressing juvenile justice policy problems of a detailed, operational nature as well as more broad and strategic problems. Figures, tables, 37 references, and an appendix presenting the model's equations are provided. (Author abstract modified)