NCJ Number
236567
Date Published
February 2011
Length
20 pages
Annotation
This report presents the Connecticut Criminal Justice Policy and Planning Division's 2011 forecast for the State's correctional population.
Abstract
The report estimates that the Connecticut Department of Correction's (DOC's) total facility population will decline moderately over the coming year. The total facility population between March 1, 2011, and February 1, 2012, should remain below 18,000 for most of the year. Barring unforeseen events or changes in policy that affect incarceration in the State, the prison population should decline by approximately 2 percent over the coming year. This forecast is based on the same set of assumptions applied to last year's forecast. The prison population is expected to fluctuate during the year, following historic seasonal patterns. The prison population should be between 17,650 and 18,000 for most of the year. Eleven years of historical prison population data for the States (2000-2010) were used to produce trend lines that reflected a range of assumptions that result in various trajectories that the State's prison population could follow over the coming year. Given the State's fiscal crises and the high costs of incarceration, it is reasonable to assume that State policymakers will explore new ways to reduce the State's prison population even more: however, the downward trend over the coming year should occur even without a major expansion in correctional alternatives to incarceration. One factor in the forecast of a downward trend is the aging prison population, since older offenders tend to recidivate at lower rates than younger offenders. Other factors affecting the forecast are outlined. Extensive table and figures as well as 8 appendixes with supplementary data and information