NCJ Number
75589
Journal
Police Magazine Volume: 4 Issue: 1 Dated: (January 1981) Pages: 35-43
Date Published
1981
Length
3 pages
Annotation
The differing findings on recent trends in national crime rates between the FBI's Uniform Crime Reports (UCR) and the National Crime Survey (NCS) are described, and theories that attempt to explain these differences are discussed.
Abstract
After 4 years of relative stability and 2 years (1976 and 1977) when the rate of reported crime actually declined, UCR statistics report a soaring crime rate in all areas of the country since the beginning of 1979. On the other hand, the Census Bureau's NCS findings, which are based on victimization surveys, point to no statistically significant rise in most categories of crime in 1979, as well as little change in 6 years. The nine NCS categories, which are defined somewhat differently from the UCR index offenses, do not include homicide, kidnapping, thefts from business, and crimes against children under 12 years of age. Some authorities in the crime statistics field believe that much of the increase in crime indicated by UCR data since 1973 merely reflects the fact that police are recording and reporting more crime and that citizens are responding to police programs, such as special rape squads, by reporting more crime. In addition, the UCR larceny-theft category is far too inclusive to be meaningful because it groups the most trivial with the most serious offenses. According to the 'demographic' theory of crime, the crime rate should have begun to drop in the late 1970's due to a decrease in the proportion of youths between the ages of 15 to 25 in the population. Current depressed economic conditions may, however, have pushed crime up despite demographic forces. A survey of police officials in several of the top crime cities shows that at least in two of the cities -Hartford, Conn., and Atlanta, Ga., -- police reforms have been launched as a direct consequence of UCR statistics. Four graphs are provided.