NCJ Number
162681
Journal
Science and Justice Volume: 35 Issue: 2 Dated: (April-June 1995) Pages: 97- 104
Date Published
1995
Length
8 pages
Annotation
An arson case in Norway involved statistical evidence revealing that a firefighter was known to have been present at the scene of the fire in the hours prior to the onset of 24 of 37 forest fires that occurred in a small rural community during a 6-week period of drought during 1992.
Abstract
Technical findings established arson in some cases, but no hard evidence directly linked the defendant to the crimes. Probabilistic analysis was used to determine whether these findings indicated that the firefighter had to be the arsonist, while taking into account special features that could explain the peculiar behavior of the defendant. The main goal of the analysis was to organize, structure, and reduce the material to a few quantities that were easier to understand than the problem in its original form. The court accepted the relevance of the calculations and used it against the defendant, but little corroborating evidence existed, and the defendant was acquitted. However, the analysis did reduce the problem to a few intelligible key conditions, creating a better basis for argument and decisionmaking than would otherwise be possible. Table, figure, and 8 references (Author abstract modified)