NCJ Number
124450
Journal
Criminology Volume: 28 Issue: 2 Dated: (1990) Pages: 347-367
Date Published
1990
Length
21 pages
Annotation
The often-observed negative correlation between crime rates and estimates of the objective certainty of a legal punishment is interpreted by some as support for the deterrence doctrine.
Abstract
Others, however, characterize the correlation as inherently artifactual because the variables being correlated have a common term (number of crimes is the numerator of the crime rate and the denominator of the objective certainty variable). Still others argue that the correlation is not inherently artifactual but is nevertheless spurious because of measurement error. This paper shows that the negative correlation is not inherently artifactual and provides evidence to support the measurement error interpretation. Unfortunately, however, there is no definitive way to demonstrate whether the negative correlation between the crime rate and the objective certainty of punishment reflects deterrence or merely measurement error. 3 tables and 26 references. (Author abstract)