Assessing and Communicating the Risk of Terrorism (From Roundtable on Social and Behavioral Sciences and Terrorism, 2004, -- See NCJ-204468

• NCJ Number: 204470
• Author(s): Baruch Fischhoff
• Date Published: 2004
• Length: 39 pages
• Sale Source: National Research Council
• Publication Format: Document
• Publication Type: Issue Overview
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America
• Note: From Science and Technology in a Vulnerable World, 55-64, based on remarks delivered at the 27th Annual AAAS Colloquium on Science and Technology Policy held April 11-12, 2002, in Washington, DC.

Annotation

In discussing research that should and could be applied to countering terrorism, this paper discusses the psychology of risk; risk analysis and risk communication; special considerations in the domain of terrorism; how to apply these perspective to bioterrorism; and some areas for the immediate development of applications and supporting basic science.

Abstract

The discussion of the psychology of risk focuses on both the public and terrorism experts. The public must have preparation well in advance of any terror-related crisis. The public must be guided in effective decisionmaking and in how they fit into larger counterterrorism plans. Terrorism evokes a wide range of emotions that must be understood if the Nation's leaders are to aid and predict citizens' choices. Experts, on the other hand, must be careful not to magnify risks in order to motivate citizens. Except for extreme situations (e.g., rapid evacuations), experts must seek a partnership with the public in implementing a rational strategy for addressing terrorism risks and crises. Regarding risk analysis and communication, one way of disciplining expert judgement is to perform formal risk analyses. This means identifying valued outcomes, the processes affecting them, and the experts with the best understanding of each. A focus on the special challenges of terrorism typically involves projecting scenarios outside of what individuals and the Nation have experienced in the past, so as to prevent and/or be prepared to address unprecedented crises. This paper examines issues in bioterrorism as an example of how to respond to the distinctive character of terrorism. In summary, the paper advises that effective risk analysis and communication require quantitative estimates of risk and explicit representation of the processes that shape those risks. Producing them requires diverse expertise, as well as the integration of risk analysis and communication, such that people's problems are addressed and their trust is secured. 28 suggested resources