NCJ Number
190369
Date Published
2001
Length
23 pages
Annotation
This paper assesses the biological weapons threat to the United States.
Abstract
The paper evaluates the threat of biological weapons use against the United States in the near term. It surveys: the proliferation of biological weapons in identified state programs; the historical record regarding the potential for state-supported terrorism with biological weapons; the experience of the use of biological agents by non-state groups, either identified as terrorist organizations, or by any other designation; and the requirements and parameters for non-state groups to produce biological agents capable of being used as weapons systems. The paper concludes that the assumption of imminent catastrophic chemical or biological (CB) terrorism in the United States was unwarranted. However, analysis of current trends provided a mixed picture, and presented a diverse group of potential actors, motives, purposes, capabilities, substances, targeting choices, and levels of lethality. Further, the paper stated that: (1) terrorist CB attacks causing catastrophic casualties were likely to remain rare; (2) state or state-sponsored chemical or biological warfare (CBW) represented a potential threat, especially in conflict with the United States; (3) CB hoaxes were increasing and would continue to be a problem; and (4) the threat of CBW goes beyond casualties to include enormous psychological impact and the potential for economic warfare. Tables, notes