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Association Between Birth Cohort Size and Fluctuating Crime Levels: A Western Australian Case Study

NCJ Number
238362
Author(s)
Lisa Rosevear
Date Published
February 2012
Length
7 pages
Annotation
This study from the Australian Institute of Criminology examined the association between changes in the age structure of the population and fluctuating crime levels in Western Australia.
Abstract
Major findings from the study include the following: 1) for males in Western Australia, cohort-specific apprehension ratios indicate that all cohorts experienced declining apprehension-ratios as they aged, with younger birth cohorts similarly experiencing higher apprehension-ratios than older birth cohorts; 2) for females in Western Australia, the majority of female birth cohorts experienced a departure from traditional age-crime patterns with apprehension ratios increasing as the cohort aged; and 3) when apprehension ratios were examined across five offense categories (offenses against property, offenses against the person, fraud and misappropriation, sexual offenses, and robbery and extortion), males showed apprehension ratios that did not decline as the cohort aged with some exceptions, and all female cohorts showed two or more departures from traditional age-crime trends across three offense categories. This study examined the association between changes in the age structure of the population and fluctuating crime levels in Western Australia. Data for the study were obtained from analysis of apprehension data for five birth cohorts: 1957-60, 1961-64, 1965-68, 1969-72, and 1973-76. The apprehension ratios were examined across the five cohorts to determine whether the cohorts experienced increasing or decreasing offense levels as the aged, and whether the degree of criminal activity extended beyond young crime-prone ages. The findings indicate that apprehension rates for specific birth cohorts are affected by cohort-specific demographics and period effects. 3 figures, 1 table, and 29 references