NCJ Number
195973
Journal
American Behavioral Scientist Volume: 44 Issue: 6 Dated: February 2001 Pages: 914-936
Date Published
February 2001
Length
23 pages
Annotation
This article uses a modified version of one futures research methodology, cross-impact analysis, to study the interactions of four trends that will likely influence the future of international terrorism.
Abstract
The four trends analyzed were the expanded use of the Internet on the international level, the effects of emerging ethnic and religious sensibilities, the growing economic gap between the rich and the poor, and the continued role of the United States as the world's predominant superpower. Regarding the nature of futures research, it does not involve the prediction of the future, but rather the development of "scenarios" which can assist in ordering perceptions about alternative future environments in which decisions might be made. Thinking about the future in a systematic way facilitates consideration of the myriad forces that will affect the type and amount of terrorism that might be expected. Further, the intended and unintended consequences of proposed legislative and foreign policy initiatives could be examined to determine their likely future effects. The method of futures analysis used in this article is cross-impact analysis (CIA), originally developed by Gordon and Helmer in 1966. CIA operates from the premise that to understand or forecast, it is essential to consider how interconnected events affect outcomes. This article applies a modified CIA methodology to the four anticipated trends so as to analyze the interactive effects of the trends as well as potential ramifications for international terrorist activity aimed at the United States through the year 2005. The main purpose of this analysis is to promote discussion. 43 references