BUILDING A SIMULATION MODEL TO ASSESS COSTS OF ALTERNATIVE POLICIES AND PROCEDURES IN A DEPARTMENT OF CORRECTIONS (FROM CRIMINAL JUSTICE STATISTICS ASSOCIATION, INC. - PROCEEDINGS..., 1979 - SEE NCJ-63318)

• NCJ Number: 63326
• Author(s): G S TRACY; J A PHIFER; G HADDER; R S MILLER
• Date Published: 1979
• Length: 7 pages
• Corporate Author: Justice Research and Statistics Association
• Sale Source: National Institute of Justice/
• Publication Type: Survey
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America

Annotation

RESEARCH ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT A CRIME SLOPE IS A MORE CONSISTENT AND USEFUL INDICATOR OF CRIME TRENDS THAN IS THE CRIME RATE.

Abstract

AN EXAMINATION OF UNIFORM CRIME REPORTS (UCR) OVER THE PAST 14 YEARS REVEALS LONG-RANGE CRIME RATE TRENDS WHICH GROW EXPONENTIALLY WITH TIME. THE RESULT COMBINED WITH THE KNOWN EXPONENTIAL GROWTH IN POPULATION HAS BEEN SHOWN TO RESULT IN A LINEAR RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE NUMBER OF INDEX CRIMES AND POPULATION. THE PAPER DESCRIBES A METHOD TO COMPARE CRIME RATES BY USING A CRIME SLOPE AND INTERCEPT METHODOLOGY, AND IT SUGGESTS THAT REGRESSION ANALYSIS BE USED TO COMPUTE CONFIDENCE INTERVALS AND COMPARE THE RESULTS. THE RESULTS FROM USING THIS MEANS OF COMPARISON SUGGEST THAT A YEARLY TABULATION OF CRIME HAS ONLY YIELDED A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE 1972-73 INTERVAL AND THAT CALIFORNIA HAS CONSISTENTLY HAD A CRIME INDEX LARGER THAN EXPECTED. COLORADO, NEW YORK, AND FLORIDA ALSO UPON OCCASION EXCEEDED EXPECTATIONS. RESULTS THUS CONFIRMED THAT CRIME SLOPE IS A MORE CONSISTENT AND USEFUL INDICATOR OF CRIME TRENDS THAN IS THE CRIME RATE. CRIME RATE, ALTHOUGH EASIER TO COMPUTE, DOES NOT ALLOW COMPARISONS TO BE MADE IN AN EASY TO DIGEST, STATISTICALLY USEFUL MANNER. CRIME SLOPE ANALYSIS HAS THE DISADVANTAGE OF REQUIRING LENGTHY COMPUTATIONS; HOWEVER, WITH THE ALMOST UNIVERSAL AVAILABILITY OF COMPUTERS, THIS DRAWBACK IS MINIMAL. TABULAR DATA ARE INCLUDED. (MJW)