NCJ Number
194944
Journal
Jane's Intelligence Review Volume: 14 Issue: 5 Dated: May 2002 Pages: 28-31
Date Published
2002
Length
4 pages
Annotation
Given that recent studies suggest that opium production in Afghanistan is set for a resurgence following the Taliban-imposed ban of 2001, this article examines the major actors in the narcotics trade and assesses the regional and international ramifications.
Abstract
Recent studies conducted by European sources indicate that Afghanistan will produce a bumper crop of opium poppy comparable to the record yield of 4,600 tons produced in 1999. An analysis of the narcotics trade emanating from Afghanistan suggests that there are three types of groups that participate in associated activities: drug mafias, transnational criminal organizations, and guerrilla/terrorist groups. These entities have developed extensive smuggling networks that extend from Afghanistan to western Europe and the Far East. It is clear that each general category of actors is engaged in specific operations. Established relationships with Afghan drug mafias and criminal organizations in neighboring countries enable transnational criminal organizations to use Iran, Pakistan, and the Central Asian republics as operational bases. In the unlikely event that international support and Afghan commitment can successfully pose a deterrent to drug mafias, or if the international forces can agree to directly eliminate opium poppy crops and drug stockpiles, the possibility that the regional trade will be relocated to Central Asia must be considered. In addition to hemp, the Central Asian environment is ideally suited for the widespread cultivation of opium poppy. The displacement of opium poppy crops to Central Asia would be facilitated by the vast network of transnational crime that has penetrated every republic over the past decade. Threatening to mirror the situation that has evolved in Latin America, anything other than a coherent anti-narcotics policy that simultaneously targets the entire region will merely result in displacement of the problem. Afghanistan and Central Asia thus require a carefully formulated response and commitment by the international community to avoid repeating past mistakes and miscalculations.