Can We Make Accurate Long-Term Predictions About Patterns of De-escalation in Offending Behavior?

• NCJ Number: 226381
• Journal: Journal of Youth and Adolescence Volume: 38 Issue: 3 Dated: March 2009 Pages: 384-400
• Author(s): Lila Kazemian; David P. Farrington; Marc Le Blanc
• Date Published: March 2009
• Length: 17 pages
• Grant Number(s): PTA-026-27-1035
• Sponsoring Agency: Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada; Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC)
• Publication Format: Article
• Publication Type: Report (Study/Research)
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America

Annotation

This study conducted a comparative analysis of patterns of de-escalation in offending between the ages of 17-18 and 32, based on data from 2 prospective longitudinal studies, the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development (a study of 411 working-class males in London) and the Montreal Two Samples Longitudinal Study (a sample of 470 adjudicated French-Canadian males).

Abstract

The key findings are similar for both samples. Measures of cognitive predispositions toward delinquent behavior at age 17-18 were weak predictors of changes in offending behavior up to age 32. This finding indicates the limited ability to make long-term predictions about individual offending patterns at an early point in a criminal career. It also suggests the importance of changes in an individual’s social bonds and cognitive predispositions toward offending as a key factor in individual variations in offending patterns across the life course. Although early measures of social bonds and cognitive predispositions were weak predictors of reductions in offending severity and frequency, improvements in cognitive predispositions (self-control and techniques of neutralization) and behavioral variables (substance use, past convictions, and associations with delinquent peers) were consistently found to be significant correlates of changes in offending severity. The dynamic nature of factors that influence offending across the life course is encouraging for intervention efforts, since it indicates that offenders can change when the right combination of factors interact with individual needs and personality traits. Intervention programs, notably cognitive-behavioral programs, can modify thinking styles and behaviors to produce de-escalation and desistance in offending in adulthood. One individual factor that may limit the potential for positive change toward a decrease in offending is limited cognitive skills, which may restrict the potential for change through cognitive-behavioral intervention. Intervention initiatives should therefore focus on improving cognitive skills as a key resource for behavioral change. 4 tables, 1 appendix, and 50 references