NCJ Number
56284
Journal
American Economic Review Volume: 68 Issue: 2 Dated: (1978) Pages: 422-427
Date Published
1978
Length
6 pages
Annotation
AN ECONOMIC APPROACH TO STUDYING THE EFFECT OF PUNISHMENT ON HOMICIDE IS TESTED STATISTICALLY IN A SUMMARY OF A MORE EXTENSIVE EXAMINATION OF A TIME-SERIES PATTERN OF HOMICIDES IN ENGLAND AND WALES FROM 1929 TO 1968.
Abstract
THE ECONOMIC APPROACH VIEWS INDIVIDUALS AS RESPONDING TO INCENTIVES AND PENALTIES EMBODIED IN THE CRIMINAL JUSTICE SYSTEM, WITH INCREASES IN EXPECTED PUNISHMENTS THROUGH CHANGES IN PROBABILITY OF ARREST AND CONVICTION REDUCING THE INCENTIVE TO COMMIT HOMICIDE. A RISE IN THE PROBABILITY OF THE MORE IMMEDIATE CONSEQUENCE, ARREST, IS PREDICTED TO REDUCE THE HOMICIDE RATE BY A GREATER PROPORTION THAN A RISE IN CONSEQUENCES IN IN LATER STAGES OF THE CRIMINAL JUSTICE PROCESS; I.E., CONVICTION AND EXECUTION. ENGLISH DATA SUPPORT THE DETERRENCE PERSPECTIVE, AS WELL AS THE THEORY THAT EXECUTION IS VIEWED BY POTENTIAL OFFENDERS AS MORE SEVERE TREATMENT THAN OTHER PENALTIES. HOWEVER, DIFFICULTIES WITH THE DATA PRECLUDE USING THESE RESULTS TO FORMULATE POLICY. THE INFORMATION USED IN THE STUDY BEGINS WITH 1929 WHEN MORE DETAILED HOMICIDE STATISTICS ARE AVAILABLE THAT FOLLOW CASES TO TERMINATION THROUGH THE CRIMINAL JUSTICE SYSTEM. A FIGURE ILLUSTRATES THE BRANCHED PATH FROM A HOMICIDE TO CLEARANCE, TO CONVICTION FOR MURDER, MANSLAUGHTER, OR GUILTY BUT INSANE, TO DISPOSITION THROUGH VARIOUS PENALTIES. LEGISLATIVE EFFECTS ON THE DATA INCLUDE PASSAGE OF THE HOMICIDE ACT IN 1957 WHICH MODIFIED THE GUILTY BUT INSANE VERDICT AND CREATED CLASSES OF HOMICIDE (I.E., CAPITAL AND NONCAPITAL), THE MURDER ACT OF 1965 WHICH ABOLISHED THE DEATH PENALTY AND SUBSTITUTED MANDATORY LIFE IMPRISONMENT, AND THE ROAD TRAFFIC ACT OF 1956 WHICH CLASSIFIED MANSLAUGHTER CAUSED BY DANGEROUS DRIVING SEPARATELY FROM OTHER MANSLAUGHTER AND LUMPED THESE DATA IN WITH ALL DEATHS CAUSED BY DANGEROUS DRIVING. THE GENERAL SPECIFICATION OF THE HOMICIDE SUPPLY EQUATION INVOLVES A MEASURE OF THE CLEARANCE RATE, CONVICTION RATE UPON ARREST, AND TYPE OF PUNISHMENT UPON CONVICTION. THE IMPACT OF CRIME CONTROL VARIABLES IS ESTIMATED RELATIVE TO SOME ALTERNATIVE; E.G., THE ALTERNATIVE TO THE MURDER CLEARANCE RATE IS THE PROPORTION NOT CLEARED OR CLEARED AS MANSLAUGHTER. INCREASING THE PROPORTION OF HOMICIDES CLEARED AS MURDER WITH A CONCOMITANT DECLINE IN HOMICIDES CLEARED AS MANSLAUGHTER (OR UNSOLVED) REDUCES THE NUMBER OF HOMICIDES, AND THE RESULTS OF SUCH A CHANGE EXCEED THOSE OF ANY OTHER DETERRENT VARIABLE, AS HYPOTHESIZED. HOWEVER, RESPONSES TO CONVICTION RATE CHANGES GENERALLY FALL BELOW RESPONSES TO PUNISHMENT RATES. THE POINT ESTIMATE ON THE PROPORTION OF CONVICTED MURDERERS ACTUALLY EXECUTED IMPLIES THAT EXECUTING AN ADDITIONAL CONVICTED MURDERER WOULD REDUCE THE NUMBER OF HOMICIDES BY 0.0932 PER MILLION POPULATION, OR 4.08 VICTIMS. A TABLE DEFINES THE CRIME CONTROL VARIABLES AND ENVIRONMENTAL VARIABLES USED IN THE ANALYSIS AND REPORTS THE RESULTS OF ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES HOMICIDE SUPPLY REGRESSION. REFERENCES ARE PROVIDES. (MPL)