CERTAINTY OF ARREST AND CRIME RATES FOR MAJOR FELONIES A RESEARCH NOTE

• NCJ Number: 37094
• Journal: Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency Volume: 13 Issue: 2 Dated: (JULY 1976) Pages: 145-154
• Author(s): W C BAILEY
• Date Published: 1976
• Length: 10 pages
• Corporate Author: National Council on Crime and Delinquency
• Publication Format: Article
• Publication Type: Statistics
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America

Annotation

TO INVESTIGATE THE DETERRENT EFFECT OF ARREST, THIS STUDY EXAMINED THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN OFFENSE RATES AND ARREST RATES FOR CITIES AND COUNTIES OF FLORIDA FOR SEVEN MAJOR FELONIES.

Abstract

A RECENT INVESTIGATION BY TITLE AND ROWE (1974) EXAMINING THE DETERRENT EFFECT OF THE CERTAINTY OF ARREST ON FELONY RATES IN FLORIDA IS BRIEFLY SUMMARIZED AND CRITIQUED. THE EXAMINATION SHOWS THEIR ANALYSIS TO SUFFER FROM SERIOUS THEORETICAL AND METHODOLOGICAL LIMITATIONS. TO EXTEND THEIR INVESTIGATION AND THUS BETTER UNDERSTAND THE DETERRENT EFFECT OF ARREST. THIS STUDY CONDUCTED SEVERAL ADDITIONAL ANALYSES OF THE RELATION OF ARREST AND OFFENSE RATES. THE AUTHOR FIRST EXPLORED THE EFFECT OF ARREST ON TOTAL FELONY RATES AND ATTEMPTED TO IDENTIFY THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY (APPREHENSION) REQUIRED TO REDUCE RATES. SECOND, TO EXAMINE THE ARGUMENT THAT SOME CRIMES ARE MORE SUBJECT TO DETERRENCE THAN OTHERS, THE EFFECT OF CERTAINTY WAS EXAMINED SEPARATELY FOR SEVEN MAJOR FELONIES TO DETERMINE THE LEVEL OF ARREST REQUIRED TO REDUCE RATES FOR EACH OFFENSE. FINALLY, A MEASURE OF POLICE MANPOWER WAS INTRODUCED AS A CONTROL VARIABLE TO TEST FOR THE POSSIBLE SPURIOUSNESS OF THE CERTAINTY OF ARREST-OFFENSE RATE RESULTS. WHILE SUPPORTING THE DETERRENCE ARGUMENT, THE ANALYSIS SHOWED THAT THE EFFECT OF ARREST IS NOT UNIFORM FOR EACH OFFENSE, WITH DIFFERENT LEVELS OF ARREST (CERTAINTY OF APPREHENSION) REQUIRED TO REDUCE RATES FOR DIFFERENT CRIMES. (AUTHOR ABSTRACT MODIFIED)