NCJ Number
131972
Date Published
1991
Length
37 pages
Annotation
Sound futures research can allow police agencies to prepare for crime prevention and community service in the 21st century rather than planning for a world that no longer exists.
Abstract
The current search for "future facts" indicates that futures research is being taken seriously. Some future facts significant to policing include drug research related to alcohol and drug abuse, universal translators, DNA fingerprinting, and smart houses. The process of futures research consists of creating images of the future, learning "expected" futures, and applying resources to achieve the expected future. Futures research helps police to learn more about the present, become more proactive, become more creative in problem solving, avoid being overwhelmed by the future, and take advantage of every opportunity. Futurism philosophies include: holistic thinking; the importance of foresight in avoiding crises; the need to plan for 5 to 50 years ahead; the belief that anything can be accomplished in 20 years; and the importance of creating images of the future. Literature reviews, future facts, bellweather examinations, trend extrapolation, opinion polls, brainstorming, Delphi Method, and scenarios are the major methods of futures study. Some technological innovations that could affect policing in the next century include bullet cytology, voice stress analyzers, electronic monitoring, memory enhancement and knowledge transfer, and telepathy. Community policing and participatory justice are two social innovations that have already begun to change policing methods. Five policies for the 21st century are identified: prevention; participatory justice; reconciliation; high tech/high touch; and symbiosis. 76 references