NCJ Number
48095
Date Published
1976
Length
13 pages
Annotation
THE IMPACT ON CRIME RATES OF POPULATION GROWTH IN THE CRIME-PRONE AGE GROUP IS EXAMINED THROUGH THE USE OF HISTORICAL DATA, AND OTHER INFLATIONARY FACTORS IMPACTING CRIME ARE DISCUSSED.
Abstract
INDICATORS OF CRIME FOR THE UNITED STATES AND VIRGINIA SHOW AN INCREASE AROUND 1965, WITH RAPID GROWTH CONTINUING THROUGH 1970. THESE SAME INDICATORS, MEASURING TOTAL INDEX CRIMES AND RATES PER 100,000 POPULATION, TAKE A DIP IN 1972 AND 1973, BUT THE LARGE INCREASE IN 1974 BRINGS THE GRAPHS BACK INTO THE APPROXIMATE TREND OF THE PRE-1972 PERIOD. THESE CRIME RATE TRENDS ARE CORRELATED WITH THE RATES OF POPULATION GROWTH IN THE CRIME-PRONE AGE GROUP, AGES 13 TO 29. AN ANALYSIS OF POPULATION DISTRIBUTION, WITH ATTENTION TO THE CRIME-PRONE AGE GROUP IN RELATION TO CRIME RATES, SHOWS A CORRELATION BETWEEN THE FACTORS. THE DIPS IN GRAPHS OF THE INDICATORS DURING 1971, 1972, AND 1973 ARE CONSIDERED TO COINCIDE WITH A LEVELING-OFF, AND EVENTUAL DECREASE, IN THE NUMBER OF PEOPLE ENTERING THE CRIME-PRONE AGE GROUP. THE JUMP OF THE INDICATORS IN 1974 AND 1975 IS EXPLAINED BY THE FOLLOWING FACTORS: IMPLEMENTATION OF MANDATORY UNIFORM CRIME REPORT PROGRAMS; RELEASE OF MILITARY PERSONNEL AFTER THE WAR IN VIETNAM; ECONOMIC CONDITIONS LEADING TO UNEMPLOYMENT, WITH PRIMARY IMPACT ON THE CRIME-PRONE AGES; THE BROADENING OF THE DEFINITION OF LARCENY-THEFT TO ELIMINATE THE $50 LOWER LIMIT; AND THE CONTINUED INCREASE OF THE 20- TO 29-YEAROLD GROUP AS THE PEAK OF THE BIRTH BOOM MOVES INTO THE 1970'S. IT IS PREDICTED THAT 1976 WILL SEE A DOWNWARD TREND IN CRIME THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. TABULAR DATA AND GRAPHS FROM THE STUDY ARE INCLUDED. (RCB)