Civic Community, Population Change, and Violent Crime in Rural Communities

• NCJ Number: 229425
• Journal: Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency Volume: 47 Issue: 1 Dated: February 2010 Pages: 118-147
• Author(s): Matthew R. Lee; Shaun A. Thomas
• Date Published: February 2010
• Length: 30 pages
• Publication Format: Article
• Publication Type: Report (Study/Research)
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America

Annotation

This study examined the links between civic robustness, population dynamics, and violent crime in rural communities.

Abstract

This analysis investigates the relationships between measures of civic community, population change, and violent crime rates in rural communities. Rural communities that are civically robust are hypothesized to have lower violent crime rates and to experience less change in violent crime over time. Alternatively, sustained population change is hypothesized to elevate violent crime rates and to moderate the protective effect that civic robustness provides against violent crime over time. Results from both lagged panel and cross-sectional negative binomial regression models of county-level data support these expectations. In substantive terms, these findings suggest that civically robust communities are much better positioned to weather population change than civically weak communities, but continuous change over time compromises the protective effect that civic robustness provides against serious crime. (Published Abstract)