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CLIMATOLOGICAL MODEL FOR FORECASTING THE DEMAND FOR POLICE SERVICE

NCJ Number
4976
Journal
Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency Volume: 7 Issue: 2 Dated: (JULY 1970) Pages: 167-176
Author(s)
N B HELLER; R E MARKLAND
Date Published
1970
Length
10 pages
Annotation
RESEARCH PROJECT WHICH DESIGNED A PROCEDURE FOR PREDICTING THE WEEKLY RATE OF REQUESTS FOR POLICE ASSISTANCE BY USING WEATHER DATA.
Abstract
THE RATE OF CITIZEN CALLS FOR POLICE SERVICE EXHIBITS MARKED SEASONAL FLUCTUATIONS, GENERALLY REACHING A PEAK DURING THE SUMMER MONTHS AND SLACKING OFF TO A LOW POINT MIDWINTER. DATA FROM ST. LOUIS, CHICAGO, AND DETROIT INDICATES A HIGH CORRELATION BETWEEN THE NUMBER OF CALLS PER WEEK AND METEOROLOGICAL VARIABLES SUCH AS AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AND HOURS OF DAYLIGHT. SINCE WEATHER DATA ARE EASILY OBTAINED FROM LOCAL WEATHER BUREAUS, AND ONLY A SINGLE YEAR OF POLICE DATA IS NEEDED TO ESTIMATE THE REGRESSION COEFFICIENTS NECESSARY FOR THIS MODEL, POLICE PLANNERS WILL BE ABLE TO USE IT FOR SCHEDULING PATROL DEPLOYMENT AND OFFICERS' VACATIONS.