NCJ Number
134218
Date Published
1969
Length
241 pages
Annotation
The 1966 European Conference of Directors of Criminological Research Institutes focused on crime forecasting in relation to demography, the volume and structure of future criminality, and criminality trends in Finland.
Abstract
The first conference report on social sciences and demography considered conditional forecasts, forecast calculations and assumptions, derived forecasts, and forecasts by generation. The second report on future criminality prediction looked at problems in forecasting projects, prediction periods and models, prior crime forecasting studies, and basic population data and demographic variables. This report also examined urbanization, industrialization, geographic mobility, indicators of economic development, income distribution, unemployment, public health data, divorce, suicide, alcohol consumption, and police intensity. The findings of a European crime forecasting experiment are detailed. The third report contains the results of a Finnish study which was part of a prediction project conducted by the Scandinavian Research Council for Criminology. The aim of the Scandinavian project was to investigate the feasibility of forecasting long-term criminality trends. Footnotes, tables, and figures