NCJ Number
76081
Date Published
1981
Length
30 pages
Annotation
Colorado inmate and parole population projections for 1981 through 1986 are presented and the State's presumptive sentencing law is highlighted.
Abstract
The State's Department of Corrections has prepared inmate projections since 1976 with aggregate error rates of less than 2.4 percent short of actual inmate populations. Projections are normally reviewed and revised at 1-year intervals. The present projection reflects recent data on the impact of presumptive sentencing. The parole caseload projection is based on recently developed statistical model -- based on the inmate projection propagation matrix -- which is designed to follow the offender through the correctional system from new intake to parole discharge. The key findings are that the State -- under present sentencing laws and economic forecasts -- could realize a prison population of 3,214 inmates and a domestic parole caseload of 1,720 by 1986. The prison population figures represent a potential 17 percent increase over the next 5 years, or growth of about 3 percent per year. However, a prediction of 'no growth' over this period appears more likely. Projection variables are discussed, and data tables are appended. (Author abstract modified)