Coming Wave of Violence in California (From Nature of Homicide: Trends and Changes - Proceedings of the 1996 Meeting of the Homicide Research Working Group, Santa Monica, California, P 40-51, 1996, Pamela K Lattimore and Cynthia A Nahabedian, eds. - See NCJ-166149)

• NCJ Number: 168571
• Author(s): A F Abrahamse
• Date Published: 1996
• Length: 12 pages
• Corporate Author: National Institute of Justice (NIJ); US Dept of Justice NIJ Pub
• Sale Source: National Institute of Justice/NCJRS; NCJRS Photocopy Services
• Publication Type: Survey
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America
• Note: *This document is currently unavailable from NCJRS.

Annotation

This paper projects homicide arrest rates in California through the year 2021 using a file that describes almost every homicide arrest in California between 1981 and 1994 and population projections created by the State of California.

Abstract

Future homicide arrest rates are estimated for every birth cohort represented in California's population between 1995 and 2021. Projected homicide arrest rates are based on pessimistic, nominal, and optimistic assumptions. Under the pessimistic assumption, homicide arrest rates will nearly double by 2021; under the nominal assumption, homicide arrest rates will be about 28 percent higher in 2021 than in 1994; under the optimistic assumption, homicide arrest rates in 2021 will be about 14 percent below 1994 levels. The author indicates there are about 80 percent more homicide victims than homicide arrests, since California saw about 1.8 homicide victims for every homicide arrest between 1981 and 1994. 11 figures