NCJ Number
146641
Journal
Journal of Forensic Sciences Volume: 39 Issue: 1 Dated: (January 1994) Pages: 28-40
Date Published
1994
Length
13 pages
Annotation
Although the goal of a National Research Council (NRC) was to answer questions about DNA typing, many of them in the areas of population genetics and statistics, few questions were answered adequately.
Abstract
In lieu of answering questions, the NRC panel proposed a conservative method of forensic inference known as the "ceiling principle." The claimed basis for the ceiling principle involves the larger gene diversity between subpopulations than between ethnic groups. Aside from its extreme conservativeness, this new method is difficult to justify because it is based on inadequate population genetics and statistical theory. Moreover, in its ultimate implementation, the method will depend on a population genetics study whose rationale is questionable. The authors criticize the statistical basis for the ceiling principle and show that empirical results motivating the method are likely to be misinterpreted. They contend that the effects of population substructure cannot be substantial and that the NRC's study design to determine ceiling allele frequencies has several undesirable statistical properties. The authors also discuss the estimation of handling errors from a statistical perspective. 41 references and 1 figure