NCJ Number
90641
Journal
Journal of Applied Psychology Volume: 68 Issue: 2 Dated: (May 1983) Pages: 203-211
Date Published
1983
Length
9 pages
Annotation
Decisionmaking guidelines are needed that include only those criminological variables that can serve the dual purpose of predicting recidivism and indicating which offenders, because of the social harm for which they have been responsible, are the most deserving of imprisonment as punishment.
Abstract
Clinical and statistical predictions of six categories of recidivism among 198 adult male felony probationers were compared and combined, both before and after correcting for the restricted range of predictor variables. The statistical composite consistently outperformed decisionmakers for the undifferentiated recidivism criteria of arrest and conviction. The opposite occurred for all three indices of violent recidivism, but only after correction for restriction of range. The combination of both variables tended not to produce significant increases in criterion variance compared to the superior predictor alone, the major exception being incarceration for any offense. Decisionmakers performed best when forecasting violent criminal behavior that resulted in incarceration. Tables, footnotes, and 19 references are included. (Author abstract modified)