NCJ Number
83447
Journal
Canadian Journal of Criminology Volume: 24 Issue: 2 Dated: (April 1982) Pages: 173-190
Date Published
1982
Length
18 pages
Annotation
This paper examines the Dangerous Offender Project in Columbus, Ohio which tested the deterrent effects of sentencing alternatives and then discusses the potential impact of harsh sentences on violent crime in Canada.
Abstract
A review of mathematical models supporting a hard-line sentencing policy emphasizes that such models are useful, but do not constitute empirical evidence. The Dangerous Offender Project obtained the criminal histories of 342 offenders in Columbus who were arrested during 1973 and charged with violent crimes. They then tested 18 different sentencing policies to see what percentage of crime would have been prevented. This study focused on the two most severe approaches: Policy 4 which imposed a 5-year mandatory prison term for any felony conviction and Policy 10 which imposed a 5-year term for any first violent felony conviction with a 5-year sentence for any subsequent violent or nonviolent felony. Policy 4 could have prevented 1.7 percent of the crimes, assuming that crime was prevented only if the person charged were found guilty. When all charges were assumed correct regardless of findings of guilt, the project found that Policy 4 reduced crime by 3.8 percent. These results indicate that a severe policy can have a significant impact only by imprisoning large numbers of offenders who commit nonviolent crimes as well. A comparison of crime patterns in Edmonton, Canada and Columbus concludes that a severe sentencing strategy probably would have even less impact in Canada. Moreover, only one-third of the violent offenses in Canada come into the criminal justice system with a formal charge, and only 6 of the 298 convicted murderers in 1974 were cases of capital or first degree murder. These data cast doubts on the effectiveness of extremely harsh sentencing policies. Mandatory sentences also may decrease the likelihood of a conviction, particularly in rape cases. Concerns about wife battering and other types of domestic violence represent more productive approaches to reducing violence. Tables and 27 footnotes are included.