NCJ Number
45496
Date Published
1975
Length
68 pages
Annotation
THE DESIGN AND TESTING OF A COMPUTER MODEL SIMULATING THE ORGANIZED FENCING OF STOLEN GOODS ARE DOCUMENTED, AND POTENTIAL USES OF THE MODEL ARE DISCUSSED.
Abstract
INFORMATION ON THE ENTITIES, EVENTS, AND RELATIONSHIPS THAT COMPRISE THE FENCING OF STOLEN GOODS AT THE PROFESSIONAL LEVEL PROVIDED THE BACKGROUND FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A CONCEPTUAL MODEL, WHICH WAS REFINED AND PROGRAMMED FOR COMPUTER EXECUTION. THE COMPUTER SIMULATION PROVIDES SUMMARY REPORTS OF THEFT, FENCING, AND CUSTOMER ACTIVITY. THE RESULTS OF 13 SIMULATION RUNS CONDUCTED UNDER A VARIETY OF INPUT CONDITIONS SUGGEST THAT COMPUTER SIMULATION IS A POTENTIALLY USEFUL TOOL FOR THE ANALYSIS OF ORGANIZED CRIME. THE SIMULATION CAN PROVIDE THE CRIMINAL INTELLIGENCE ANALYST WITH A FRAMEWORK WITHIN WHICH TO DESCRIBE ORGANIZED FENCING FROM AVAILABLE DATA, TO MANIPULATE THE COMPONENTS OF FENCING ACTIVITY IN ORDER TO GAIN AN UNDERSTANDING OF THAT ACTIVITY, AND, ULTIMATELY, TO MAKE PREDICTIONS. THE DEVELOPMENT AND CONTENT OF THE MODEL ARE REVIEWED, AND FOUR OF THE SIMULATION RUNS ARE DOCUMENTED. COPIES OF DATA INPUT FORMS, SAMPLE OUTPUT, AND A LIST OF REFERENCES ARE INCLUDED. (LKM)