NCJ Number
206022
Date Published
2004
Length
182 pages
Annotation
This study analyzed data generated with a new computer program called ThESE (The Erasmus Simulation Environment) written by the author, which is a simulation environment that models an artificial society of citizens who individually and repeatedly face a decision about whether to comply with or transgress rules.
Abstract
Under the simulation model, rule transgression produces an economic advantage for the violator; however, a law enforcement agency occasionally checks the behavior of the citizens, and rule violators are punished. Beginning within an individual bounded rational decision framework, ThESE is designed to explore the relationship between individual assessments of the certainty of legal sanctions, locally determined informal sanctions, and aggregate outcomes. In the simulation model, individuals locally interact with each other, allowing for a dynamic interaction between the actual level of law enforcement intervention and individual assessment of the risk of such interventions. After explaining the simulation model, the results of its testing for public policy are discussed. The simulation results suggest that law enforcement is probably most effective when it is more visible to the public, so that citizens can better assess the "true" effectiveness of the law enforcement system. The author concludes that efforts to exaggerate the likelihood of police detection and intervention for law-breaking is not as likely to achieve deterrence as accurate information about the probability of punishment for various offenses. Extensive tables and figures, 90 references, and appended supplementary material