NCJ Number
75887
Journal
Evaluation Review Volume: 5 Issue: 1 Dated: (February 1981) Pages: 90-122
Date Published
1981
Length
33 pages
Annotation
Three alternative approaches were used to evaluate a law enforcement project designed to reduce property crime in Santa Barbara County, Calif. The approaches were found to produce similar results.
Abstract
The three techniques were (1) forecasting while holding the experimental variables constant to compare with the observed time series, (2) interrupted time series analysis, and (3) contrasting observed experimental results with a controlled environment. Each of the first two techniques has theoretical or practical weaknesses that have been noted in the literature of econometrics and sociometrics. The third approach was to construct, from a set of 72 alternatives, a control group appropriate to the circumstances of the test for the purpose of evaluation. A technique is presented for choosing the best quasi-control group. The program studied was a countywide narcotic addiction control project in which authorities intensified their enforcement of the law, providing for a minimum of 90 days in jail for being convicted of being under the influence of narcotic drugs. The incarceration, which could continue up to a maximum of 1 year, was expected to substantially reduce property crime. Evaluation data were obtained from official records. Results showed that burglary offense levels substantially declined, while larceny levels experienced insignificant changes. Findings supported the hypothesis that the experiment produced positive results. The technique using a quasi-control group should be applicable in situations for which the other two methods are inappropriate. Detailed descriptions of the three evaluation techniques, tables, notes, and 27 references are included. (Author abstract modified)