NCJ Number
45378
Journal
Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science Volume: 434 Dated: (NOVEMBER 1977) Pages: 114-136
Date Published
1977
Length
23 pages
Annotation
HISTORICAL EVIDENCE FROM THREE DIFFERENT WESTERN SOCIETIES ARE EXAMINED IN AN EFFORT TO UNDERSTAND THE APPARENT INCREASE IN COMTEMPORARY CRIME.
Abstract
OFFICIAL RECORDS OF OFFENSES AGAINST PERSONS AND PROPERTY IN LONDON, STOCKHOLM, AND SYDNEY SHOW SIMILAR TRENDS DURING THE PAST 150 YEARS. FROM AROUND 1840 TO 1930, INDICATORS OF COMMON CRIME FELL BY AN AVERAGE RATIO OF 8 TO 1. FROM THAT TIME UNTIL 1977, AND PARTICULARLY SINCE 1950, THEY HAVE INCREASED BY SIMILAR RATIOS. CHANGES IN CRIMINAL LAW, POLICE SYSTEMS, AND JUDICIAL POLICIES IN THESE SOCIETIES ARE EXAMINED TO SEE WHETHER THEY EXPLAIN THE TRENDS. IT WAS FOUND THAT THEY CAN ONLY ACCOUNT FOR SHORT-TERM FLUCTUATIONS IN CRIME RATES. IT IS CONCLUDED THAT THESE TRENDS DO REFLECT REAL AND PROFOUND CHANGES IN AGGREGATE SOCIAL BEHAVIOR -- AN INCREASE IN THE VOLUME OF THREATENING SOCIAL BEHAVIOR SINCE WORLD WAR II. THE FINDINGS DO NOT SUSTAIN THE BELIEF THAT THE WORKINGS OF THE POLICE, COURTS, OR PENAL INSTITUTIONS HAVE CONSISTENT EFFECTS ON THE MAGNITUDE OF CRIME. (AUTHOR ABSTRACT MODIFIED.)