Counting Crimes--The Importance of Understanding Crime Concentration for the Design and Evaluation of Crime Reduction Strategies

• NCJ Number: 226508
• Journal: International Journal of Police Science & Management Volume: 10 Issue: 4 Dated: Winter 2008 Pages: 434-447
• Author(s): Michelle Rogerson
• Date Published: 2008
• Length: 14 pages
• Publication Format: Article
• Publication Type: Statistics; Report (Study/Research)
• Language: English
• Country: United Kingdom

Annotation

This study demonstrates that the relationship between crime prevalence (number or proportion of victims within the population) and crime concentration (number of crimes per victim) varies across crime types, across areas, and over time, so as to highlight the importance of these statistics for the development of effective policy and practice.

Abstract

The overall level or incidence of crime (usually quoted as a rate per population) is a product of the prevalence and concentration of crime. All of the 39 areas in England selected for this study have high levels of crime (crime incidence) when compared with national and regional figures. For each of the crime types in the survey analyzed (the New Deal for Communities [NDC] Survey, 2002), the number of crimes per victim and the overall incidence were higher than the national average in the British Crime Survey. The disadvantage of the crime-incidence statistics for an area is that they assume that everyone in a given population has the same risk of becoming a victim and that everyone experiences the same amount of crime; however, crime is actually unevenly distributed across areas and across individuals. Crime prevalence and crime concentration data provide a picture of this distribution. Consequently, it is important to determine whether an area has a high rate of crime because of high prevalence, high incidence, or both. The process of identifying repeat victims, essential in the calculation of crime concentration, could be facilitated by improving the accuracy and detail of recorded crime data. This should include both technical innovation to crime recording databases and staff training in the importance of accurate details. An accurate picture of crime is essential for informing the selection of crime-reduction interventions. 4 tables, 5 figures, 12 references, and appended NDC survey 2002/2004 questionnaire wording