Crime and Arrest Rate Predictions for the States of Alaska and Oregon - Executive Summary

• NCJ Number: 92958
• Author(s): K Johnson; R McCleary; J Angell; J Eidson
• Date Published: Unknown
• Length: 18 pages
• Grant Number(s): 82-BJ-CX-K420
• Sponsoring Agency: Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS)
• Corporate Author: University of Alaska
• Sale Source: National Institute of Justice/; NCJRS Photocopy Services
• Language: English
• Country: United States of America

Annotation

This summary of a crime forecasting study conducted for Alaska and Oregon concludes that overall crime rates in both States will increase through 1987, although the bulk of the increase will be in nonviolent or property crime.

Abstract

Based on several years of monthly crime and arrest statistics collected from 16 Alaska and 36 Oregon Uniform Crime Reporting areas, Box-Jenkins models were constructed for 96 crime and arrest series. The forecasts generated by these models showed that violent crime is expected to remain stable in Alaska through 1987, with the exception of Anchorage where it should rise modestly. An expected increase in property crimes will be realized almost entirely in Anchorage. Violent crime in six of the seven Oregon forecasting regions is expected to remain constant or even decline through 1987. In Regions 1 and 2, property crime is expected to increase, although at a lesser rate than during the pre-1982 period. In Alaska, the rate of clearance by arrest for property crime is expected to rise slightly and then gradually begin declining through 1987. However, arrests for violent crime are expected to decline in 1983 and then level off. In contrast, arrests for both violent and property crime in Oregon are expected to increase substantially. Additional analyses suggested that revisions in the Alaska Criminal Code in 1980 may have resulted in a decrease in violent and property crime. The report includes suggestions for resolving forecasting problems and maps.