NCJ Number
181267
Journal
British Journal of Criminology Volume: 38 Issue: 4 Dated: Autumn 1998 Pages: 681-698
Editor(s)
Richard Sparks
Date Published
1998
Length
18 pages
Annotation
This analysis of post-war trends in recorded property crime in England and Wales shows personal consumption has a dual role in explaining trends and changes in property crime.
Abstract
The author indicates the work of Field (1990) and Pyle and Deadman (1994) has contributed to research on the importance of economic factors in criminal activity but points out both analyses have weaknesses. Field ignores the importance of long-term equilibrium relationships, while errors in the interpretation of Pyle and Deadman lead them to conclude personal consumption, unemployment, and gross domestic product may be used interchangeably. Results show personal consumption alone has a long-term equilibrium relationship with property crime. Personal consumption also features in short-term dynamic models of crime. The long-term effect is interpreted in the context of increased opportunity or availability of targets, while the short-term effect corresponds to a motivational effect. Unemployment has no role in explaining long-term crime trends, but it is a factor in explaining short-term fluctuations. The author concludes that the results may be seen as giving further support to those arguing for more resources to be devoted to crime prevention strategies, both physical and social at all levels, because potential targets will continue to increase in number with continued long-term economic growth. 29 references, 9 footnotes, and 7 tables