NCJ Number
233445
Date Published
February 2009
Length
8 pages
Annotation
Following a literature review on how the topic of crime and the state of the economy has been addressed in the past, the National Council on Crime and Delinquency (NCCD) examines criminal justice data in conjunction with economic recessions and expansions, using State and National data.
Abstract
Contemporary studies generally offer two explanations for the assumed link between crime and a depressed economy. First, that without a steady, legitimate income, people resort to crime in desperation. The second supposition is that the unemployed have more free time than workers to seek out opportunities for criminal activity. Many analyses do not measure the effects that other variables, such as education, community crime prevention programs, and local budgets may have on crime. It is clear from the Great Depression, however, that these factors do matter. Many studies conclude that the crime and economy relationship is "inconsistent and insignificant." The NCCD's secondary research shows that there is no clear link between economic recession and crime rates. There is no evidence over the past four decades that economic downturns have led to increases in crime rates, even if one were to assume a lag between the time of a recession and a spike in crime. Economic hardships may motivate certain crimes, but the relationship between the two is far from automatic or predictable. The economy or demographics alone are not sufficient to generate significant swings in crime rates. The NCCD used three indicators to measure crime: reported crime data, arrest data, and prison data from 1970 to the present. National data were reviewed along with data for the five most populous States. The period since 1970 encompasses the most sustained recessions since the Great Depression, as well as several lengthy periods in which the economy was expanding. 5 figures and 15 references