NCJ Number
89161
Journal
British Journal of Criminology Volume: 23 Issue: 2 Dated: (April 1983) Pages: 166-172
Date Published
1983
Length
7 pages
Annotation
An analysis of crime rates and imprisonment rates in Britain (England and Wales) and Australia during the 1960's and 1970's reveals similarities regarding rising crime rates but contrasting trends in the use of imprisonment; this suggests that lower imprisonment rates have no impact on the level of public safety.
Abstract
The crime rate for England and Wales increased by over 177 percent between 1960 and 1979, while the prison population grew by 45 percent. The crime rate in Australia between 1964 and 1979 increased by 180 percent, but the number of prisoners decreased by approximately 9 percent. Statistical analyses demonstrate that for England and Wales, any measure of reported crime could be used to predict the level of imprisonment without a span of at least 3 years with a fair degree of accuracy. However, Australia's reported crime rate is a negative predictor of imprisonment rates 3 years later, and lagging the rate has the effect of shrinking the correlation. Thus, changes in Australia's imprisonment rate have no effect on the crime rates over the next 1, 2, or 3 years. Possible explanations for the Australian findings include the exclusion of minor offenses for which courts can impose incarceration from official crime data and riots and disturbances in prisons which made judges more aware of overcrowding problems. Another theory proposes that increasing crime rates burden the criminal justice system and force police and prosecutors to seek convictions for lesser offenses which are processed more quickly, thereby decreasing penalties. These explanations are not totally satisfactory, since England and Wales have experienced similar problems. Since the lower imprisonment rates did not increase crime in Australia, more strenuous efforts should be made to reduce populations in England and Wales. Graphs, tables, and six references are included.