NCJ Number
180021
Journal
Journal of Offender Rehabilitation Volume: 29 Issue: 1/2 Dated: 1999 Pages: 65-75
Date Published
1999
Length
11 pages
Annotation
This article explicates the probabilities of being arrested, convicted, and incarcerated for the commission of felony crimes enumerated in the Uniform Crime Reports, assesses the relationship between growing correctional populations and crime rates, and determines the relationship between murder rates and capital punishment over the past 21 years in the United States.
Abstract
The probability of arrest for murder was 94.8 percent, for conviction following arrest was 54.3 percent and for incarceration (prison and jail) following conviction was 97 percent. The article gives the probability of being "locked up" for committing homicide, rape, robbery, assault, burglary, larceny and motor vehicle theft. The probabilities were quite low, suggesting there may be a generalized expectation among those inclined to behave illegally that their acts will go unpunished by intrusive sanction, even when observed. As the imposition of sanctions has increased, so too has the country's crime rate. However, the relationship between crime and punishment was curvilinear and doubtless sensitive to not-yet-identified variations in the sociopolitical arena. There was a negative correlation between murder rates and capital punishment. Tables, references