NCJ Number
61975
Journal
Federal Probation Volume: 43 Issue: 2 Dated: (JUNE 1979) Pages: 39-43
Date Published
1979
Length
5 pages
Annotation
A REFINEMENT AND EXTENSION OF THE WORK OF WILLIAM G. NAGEL DEALING WITH THE CORRELATION BETWEEN CRIME RATES AND IMPRISONMENT RATES IN THE UNITED STATES IS PRESENTED IN THIS BRIEF STUDY.
Abstract
THE WORK OF WILLIAM G. NAGEL SHOWED THAT THE CORRELATION BETWEEN CRIME RATES AND IMPRISONMENT RATES IN THE UNITED STATES IS POSITIVE. NAGEL RESTRICTED HIS ANALYSIS TO THE U.S., AND USED RANK ORDER CORRELATIONS RATHER THAN CALCULATING MORE SENSITIVE PRODUCT-MOMENT CORRELATIONS FROM THE FIGURES. IN THIS STUDY, THE LATEST AVAILABLE EVIDENCE RELATING TO CRIME AND IMPRISONMENT FOR ALL JURISDICTIONS WAS USED; DATA ARE FOR 1975. BOTH TOTAL CRIME AND VIOLENT CRIME FIGURES WERE CONSIDERED; CRIME AND IMPRISONMENT RATES WERE CALCULATED PER 100,000 POPULATION. DATA SHOW THAT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE VARIATION BETWEEN THE STATES IN THE USE OF IMPRISONMENT, WITH THE LOWEST BEING NORTH DAKOTA AT 27 AND THE HIGHEST NORTH CAROLINA AT 210. STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT POSITIVE CORRELATIONS BETWEEN CRIME RATES AND IMPRISONMENT RATES WERE ALSO INDICATED BY DATA OBTAINED FROM THE 12 CANADIAN PROVINCES FOR 1974. THE TOTALITY OF THE DATA SUPPORTS THE PROPOSITION THAT THERE IS A POSITIVE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CRIME AND THE USE OF IMPRISONMENT. PERHAPS THIS SIMPLY REFLECTS THE FACT THAT COMMUNITIES WHICH HAVE HIGH CRIME RATES FEEL COMPELLED TO RESPOND BY INCARCERATING PROPORTIONATELY HIGHER NUMBERS OF OFFENDERS. HOWEVER, IT MAY ALSO BE TRUE THAT IMPRISONMENT ITSELF IS CRIMINOGENIC; THE DATA CANNOT BE USED TO SUPPORT EITHER CAUSAL INTERPRETATION. ALTHOUGH THE DATA CANNOT CONFIRM A CAUSAL THEORY, THEY CAN REFUTE THE THEORY THAT THE GREATER USE OF IMPRISONMENT WILL REDUCE CRIME, AND SHOULD ENCOURANGE THE USE OF IMPRISONMENT AT THE LOWEST ACCEPTABLE LEVEL. STATISTICAL TABULAR DATA, GRAPHS, AND FOOTNOTES ARE INCLUDED. (LWM)