NCJ Number
62510
Date Published
1976
Length
7 pages
Annotation
DATA RELATING CRIME TO POPULATION AND CRIMINAL JUSTICE COST OVER TIME ARE USED TO DEVELOP MATHEMATICAL EQUATIONS THAT CAN BE USED TO PREDICT THE LEVEL OF CRIME TO BE EXPECTED FROM A GIVEN INVESTMENT.
Abstract
RESEARCH HAS ESTABLISHED THAT THE TOTAL VOLUME OF CRIME AND THE POPULATION SIZE OF A GIVEN AREA ARE LINEARLY RELATED, AS ARE THE COST OF THE CRIMINAL JUSTICE SYSTEM AND POPULATION SIZE. BOTH THE CRIME RATE AND THE POPULATION INCREASE EXPONENTIALLY WITH TIME. IMPLICATIONS OF THESE FINDINGS ARE EXAMINED THROUGH A STUDY OF THE CRIME RATE IN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE ENTIRE NATION OVER A 15-YEAR PERIOD. REGRESSION ANALYSIS WAS APPLIED TO THE DATA, AND THE CORRELATION COEFFICIENT FOR AN EXPONENTIAL CURVE FIT WAS GREATER THAN 0.85 FOR ALL CASES TESTED. FIVE OTHER CURVES WERE TRIED, EACH OF WHICH RESULTED IN SMALLER COEFFICIENTS THAN THE EXPONENTIAL CURVE FIT. THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE COST OF THE CRIMINAL JUSTICE SYSTEM AND THE POPULATION SERVED WAS ALSO SHOWN TO BE LINEAR. MATHEMATICAL EQUATIONS ARE DEVELOPED TO SHOW THE INTERACTION BETWEEN POPULATION SIZE, CRIME RATE, AND CRIMINAL JUSTICE COSTS OVER TIME. TABULAR AND GRAPHIC DATA ARE PROVIDED. (RCB)